人口下降與殺校潮︰質素與資源的社會抉擇 《信報》
隨着近年香港出生人口下降，小學收生不足的情況日趨嚴重，下學年更有15所小學收生不足，獲派「零班」。有建議提出容許學校招收非本地生，以彌補本地生源不足，但亦有論者指出非本地生入讀公帑資助的學校並不合適。過去二十多年，學界曾如何回應殺校潮，現今為何有所不同？
過去學生人數下降並不一定被視為問題，反而是推行教改和優化教育的機會。例如，收生不足的學校獲容許進入直資計劃，除了使更多學校透過家長擇校的市場化機制，優化教育質素，亦增加學校課程彈性自主，推動多元教育，如IB課程、高中多元選修；此外，學校亦被鼓勵推行小班教學，降低師生比例，增加師生互動，令教師更能照顧學生個別差異。
那麼，上述政策的操作空間仍存在嗎？儘管直資學校數目有所擴展，77%小學仍是以公營（官立或資助）學校為主，仍難稱為多元教育體系；自2024年起，香港小學班級正式以25名學生一班為標準班額，但比起美國（20）、德國（21）、法國（21）等（註），仍有優化空間。
事實上，社會議論的轉向，更多是教育質素以外的原因。首先，如不少論者所言，市場化的核心之一，是以市場之力汰弱留強，弱校要建立自己的明確特色，並說服家長相信，並不容易；其次，小班教學同時導致名校的班級名額及叩門位減少，這亦會引起部分家長不滿；最後，而且是最重要的，是資源問題。支持優質教育的前提在於資源充裕，可是在目前赤字高企、削減公共開支的要求下，維持教育開支相對醫療、社會福利及保安等範疇而言，更難得到社會支持。畢竟後三者關係所有市民的貼身福祉，教育質素則只跟有子女的家長，以及社會長遠發展有關。
從上可見，人口下降不必然導致上述問題，重點是社會整體選擇。我們到底希望培養有質素、對香港有歸屬感的下一代？還是着眼維持福利和解決經濟問題？兩者均有利弊，更無絕對對錯。因此，這問題最核心的關鍵，其實在於香港希望由誰承擔，以及何時付出這些不可避免的代價。
OECD (2025). Education at a Glance 2025: OECD Indicators. Paris: OECD Publishing.
梁亦華(2026.05.22)︰人口下降與殺校潮︰質素與資源的社會抉擇，《信報教育》。
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Population Decline and the Wave of School Closures: A Social Choice Between Quality and Resources
Hong Kong Economic Journal
With Hong Kong’s birth rate falling in recent years, under-enrolment in primary schools has become increasingly acute. In the coming academic year alone, 15 primary schools have been allocated “zero classes” after failing to recruit enough students. Some have proposed allowing schools to admit non-local students to offset the shrinking local student population, while others argue that it is inappropriate for non-local children to enter publicly funded schools. Yet more than twenty years ago, the education sector responded rather differently to earlier waves of school closures. Why has the atmosphere changed?
In the past, a decline in student numbers was not necessarily treated as a crisis. It was often regarded as an opportunity to advance education reform and improve teaching quality. Schools facing under-enrolment were allowed to join the Direct Subsidy Scheme, enabling more schools to operate through a market-oriented mechanism of parental choice. The intention was not merely to encourage competition, but also to expand curricular autonomy and promote educational diversity, including IB programmes and a broader range of senior secondary electives. Schools were also encouraged to adopt small-class teaching, reducing teacher-student ratios and increasing classroom interaction so that teachers could respond more effectively to individual learning differences.
The question now is whether such policy space still exists. Although the number of Direct Subsidy Scheme schools has grown, 77 per cent of primary schools remain within the public sector, whether government or aided schools, making it difficult to describe Hong Kong as a genuinely diverse education system. Since 2024, the official standard class size for primary schools has been set at 25 students per class. Even so, there remains room for further improvement when compared with countries such as the United States (20), Germany (21), and France (21).
In truth, the shift in public discussion has less to do with educational quality than with pressures outside education itself. As many commentators have pointed out, one of the central assumptions of marketisation is that weaker schools will eventually be eliminated through competition. For struggling schools, however, establishing a distinctive identity and persuading parents of its value is far from easy. Small-class teaching has also reduced the number of places available in elite schools, including discretionary admission places, which inevitably provokes dissatisfaction among some parents.
Above all, the issue is one of resources. High-quality education depends on sustained public investment. Yet under the current fiscal deficit and mounting calls to reduce public expenditure, education spending finds it increasingly difficult to command support when placed alongside healthcare, social welfare, and public security. The latter three concern the immediate wellbeing of the entire population, whereas educational quality appears, at least in the short term, to concern only parents with children and the longer-term development of society.
What this reveals is that population decline does not inevitably produce these outcomes. Much depends on the choices society is prepared to make. Does Hong Kong still wish to cultivate a younger generation with quality education and a sense of belonging to the city? Or is the priority now the preservation of welfare provision and the resolution of economic pressures? Neither path is without cost, and neither carries absolute moral authority. The deeper question is who Hong Kong expects to bear these unavoidable costs, and when society is willing to pay them.
OECD (2025). Education at a Glance 2025: OECD Indicators. Paris: OECD Publishing.
Leung, Y. W. (2026.05.22). Population Decline and the Wave of School Closures: A Social Choice Between Quality and Resources, Hong Kong Economic Journal.
